Bowcast

Rainbow forecast for Manchester

Manchester, England, United Kingdom: today's peak estimated rainbow chance, the best forecast interval to look up, and the week ahead.

…

Checking about 40 forecast ensemble members for sunlit rain near Manchester…

Open the live map for Manchester

Rainbow weather in Manchester

Manchester lives under the North Atlantic conveyor: fast-moving showers with bright spells between them, at a latitude where the sun stays low for much of the day. Low sun means tall bows, and "sunshine and showers" is practically the regional forecast. Spring and autumn, when shower trains are busiest, are the best seasons.

At 53.5° north, Manchester's useful viewing window shifts with the seasons. Local winter brings longer periods of low sun, while summer usually concentrates the geometry near sunrise and sunset.

Wherever you are, the geometry is the same: a primary rainbow forms opposite the sun while the sun is less than about 42 degrees above the horizon. Bowcast's research-informed heuristics give extra weight to clearing showers. The gauge above applies them to ensemble forecasts for the 12 km around Manchester.

Rainbow questions, answered

When do rainbows appear in Manchester?
Rainbows need sunlit rain with the sun lower than about 42 degrees, so in Manchester useful windows often occur after sunrise or before sunset on showery days. A study in ZhaoSu, China found that about nine in ten observed rainbows occurred during the hour after rainfall. Bowcast uses that regional finding as research guidance, not a universal rate.
Where should I look for a rainbow in Manchester?
Always directly opposite the sun: put the sun at your back and look toward the retreating rain. In the evening that means looking east; in the morning, west.
What is the estimated rainbow chance in Manchester today?
Bowcast checks about 40 forecast ensemble members for sunlit-rain ingredients around Manchester, hour by hour, for the next 7 days. The result is an estimated chance from model agreement, not a probability calibrated against observed rainbow frequencies. This page shows today's peak and best forecast interval; the Now board shows the interval containing the current time.

More rainbow forecasts